When Cheap Money Signals Danger: AI Disruption Meets Macro Distress
Mortgage rates hit 6% for first time since 2022—but bond markets aren't celebrating growth. They're pricing capitulation as AI carves up another sector.
The trading floor has a saying: when mortgages cheapen because bonds are rallying on fear, not optimism, you're watching distress masquerade as relief. Thirty-year rates just touched 6%—matching 2022 lows—yet equity markets are hemorrhaging. The divergence speaks volumes. Cybersecurity stocks are getting eviscerated for the second consecutive session after Anthropic unveiled tools that threaten to automate away entire software categories. This isn't peripheral disruption anymore; AI is methodically unbundling the stack, and investors are finally repricing which moats actually hold water. Meanwhile, Washington adds policy fog to an already murky picture. The Supreme Court handed tariff authority back to Congress on Friday, and GOP ranks are fracturing over trade strategy even as Treasury yields signal growth anxiety. Tesla's lawsuit against California's DMV over false advertising claims around Full Self-Driving shows even presumed AI winners face mounting regulatory crossfire. Bond markets are whispering what equity investors don't want to hear: this easing isn't about strength, it's about bracing for impact. Credit spreads and the dollar will clarify whether we're buying a dip or catching a falling knife.
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